The Gajanan Axis - A short note on the BJP strategy for the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections

As things stand now, the 2024 Lok Sabah Elections will be decided by the States that make up what I call the Gajanan Axis - The Elephant's Face (refer to the map)

This area covers most of the states that either been traditional /long time bastions of Hindutva Politics (Gujarat and Maharashtra) or states that have slowly built up sizeable support in the 2 decades (Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan).

It also includes states like Assam, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and a couple of North Eastern States that are currently with the BJP or allied to it.

Readers must note that the BJP has spent significant political capital in these states and has also wooed voters across castes through various welfare schemes in their aim to build a united Hindu Voting block. This outreach which has been strengthened by having a government in power at the Centre since 2014 is bound to reap maximum results in 2024 with the completion or near completion of several landmark infra projects like the Jal Jeevan Mission, Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, subsidised cooking gas and so on.

Furthermore, the completion of the Ram Janmabhoomi Temple in Ayodya, the Kashi and Ujjain Corridors have further boosted the Hindutva Image of the Government especially in these states mentioned (old times might remember the mock phrase "Mandir wahi banayenge par tareek nahi batayenge!").

As a result, the BJP will end up going all out in these states in terms of campaigning. Do note that this does not mean their lack of strenght in other states or forays into new territories like Tamil Nadu and Orissa.

What is most likely the Opposition's Plan? Well, way I see it, its simple enough. Almost every non NDA party will end up ganging up together in all states (we may not see a formal declartion of a coaliation among a few parties though) to ensure a single point of opposition. While this may bring some joy to the Congress Party, I believe that should this coalition succeed in limiting the NDA to under 273 seats, the Congress will not be a contender for the PM post. In fact I predict they might not get a top 4 Ministerial Berth as well considering their near political irrelevance in most states barring Kerala and Rajasthan.

The Gajanan Axis will be the rear guard for the BJP in this situation and every seat lost here will make it more difficult fot them to form the Central Government.